Published by The Freeman Center
The Maccabean Online
Political Analysis and Commentary
FREEMAN CENTER ELECTION BLOG
by Bernard J. Shapiro March 13, 2006
As the election grows nearer, I detect some positive signs. Olmert’s extreme leftist Kadim party has dropped from its peak of 42 potential Knesset seats to 34. The parties who support the security and survival of Israel as a Jewish State seem to be holding their own and increasing slightly. Recent analysis of the polls also show some real deficiencies in their accuracy as to final results. A full 20% of the electorate says it is undecided at this late date (15 days to the election). This would amount to at least 24 Knesset seats. A mere shift of 10 seats from Left to Right would change the outcome completely. At present the polls are indicating a total Left wing bloc (including Hamas supporting Arabs) of 65 seats. The Right/religious bloc now has 55 seats.
There is another factor of importance. A full 75% of Israelis polled refuse to answer or even talk to pollsters. It is believed that many of them support the Right. With bitter experience with the anti-democratic character of Olmert’s ruling government, they are simply afraid to let their feeling known. When the election comes, we may see a dramatic, unforseen victory for the pro- Eretz Yisrael parties.
The biggest problem for the Right is a palpable frustration with the whole political system. Some important and intelligent voices have told me that it is better for the Left to win, since we keep getting ‘sold out’ by the Right. This view holds that a Left wing victory will unite the Right in opposition. I believe this to be foolish, self destructive and could lead to a self fulfilling prophecy. I see a victory for Olmert’s Kadima as disastrous for Israel. Not only will there be no time to organize a strong opposition, but it will be brutally crushed as in Gush Katif and Amona. The media, the justice system, the police and the army will back Olmert in whatever he does.
It is quite true that there is no one perfect candidate for Prime Minister on the Right and each of the parties has its positive and negative sides. Israelis must take a deep breath and vote for the party that best suits them ideologically. The program to vote one party to the Right is a great program and should be encouraged with vigor.
THIS ELECTION IS NOT AN ORDINARY ELECTION -
BUT ONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF ISRAEL -
ITS SECURITY, BORDERS AND JEWISH CONTENT.
IF YOU DON’T VOTE, THEN YOU ARE HELPING KADIMA